You’ve probably been glued to your Twitter feed for the past week. You heard about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the rapid escalation of the conflict. You’ve seen images of bombed out apartment buildings and the heroic efforts of Ukrainian soldiers who died defending their country.
You know there is a war underway but you might not know what is really at stake. What’s happening isn’t a Ukraine problem and it never was. This is the reemergence of the dormant cold war that existed between the Soviet Union and the United States after World War II. The war being waged in Ukraine is an ideological one, not a territorial one.
The word is at a crossroads of significant and rapid change. This change will require renegotiating society’s relationship with their governments and the economies that power them. The question moving forward is will we continue to live in America’s version of the world or Russia’s?
Restoring Empire
It is hard for Americans to understand Putin’s desire to restore the Russian empire because America has truly never been one. While America has controlled foreign territories, facilitated regime changes, and has been the global hegemon since the end of the second world war, America is barely old enough to be a country let alone an empire.
Historically, an empire is the consolidation of a group of countries under the control of a singular ruler. In Egypt that was the pharaoh, in Rome the emperor, in Britain the monarch, and in Russia the tsar. These empires spanned vast territories that brought different people, religions, geographies, and ways of life into the fold.
By invading Ukraine, Putin is attempting to restore Russia to its proper place as a global empire. The beginnings of Russia date back to Viking rule in Kievan Rus’, the confederation of Slavic states that consists of modern-day Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. As its etymology implies, Kievan Rus’ was founded in Kyiv.
Ukraine is symbolic to this attempt to restore the Russian empire. It carries the same weight to Russia’s founding myth as Boston Harbor and Philadelphia does to our own here in America. For Putin, capturing Ukraine is a significant event that threads together the revanchist foreign policy narrative he has been pursuing since he came to power.
Rewriting European Identities
What’s at stake in Europe right now supersedes sovereignty or territorial integrity. If Ukraine falls to Putin, it has the potential to undermine the delicate balance of modern European identities. While Europeans have held onto their continental identity thus far, it may only be a matter of time until the European Union begins to fade as ethnic identities reemerge.
Prior to World War I European identities revolved around monarchies. Countries like Ukraine, Poland, and Belarus didn’t independently exist. They were part of Russia or the Austro-Hungarian empire. Thus, national identities didn’t matter as much as they do today. You were Ukrainian because you spoke Ukrainian, attended a church following Ukrainian orthodoxy, and lived in a village with other Ukrainians. You weren’t a Ukrainian because you lived in Ukraine.
Much of the national identities we know today were crafted by 20th century mapmakers who had no idea what they were doing. They invented countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe that had never existed before. Often these new countries bound historically adversarial populations together, sowing the seeds of conflict. This convergence of competing identities enabled genocide in Rwanda, war following the breakup of Yugoslavia, and separatist movements to emerge in Russian-speaking territories today.
The Russian incursion into Ukraine raises the question of national identity. What exactly is it and what does it mean? What does it mean to be Polish, Lithuanian, or Estonian? When put to the test will Germany come to the defense of Poland, who less than a century ago tried to wipe Poland off the map? Will Estonia, a NATO ally of 1.3 million people who share a border with Russia, come to defend a country like Turkey if Russia launches an attack on it from the Black Sea?
We underestimate the fragility of European identities. For the first time in history, collective security arrangements of different and formerly hostile national identities are being put to the test. If the conflict in Ukraine persists or continues to escalate, will these identities hold? Or will Europeans retreat to ethnic, tribal identities that have historically defined the continent?
Let’s not forget that Europe is dependent on the United States to provide for its defense. Collective security, in theory, has worked, but now that it is being tested, can Europeans hold it for themselves?
Reducing Trust in International Institutions
Just as European identities are being put to the test, so too are western institutions. This is the first time in history where NATO has been activated, a massive multilateral sanctions regime is being negotiated, and voting is happening in the United Nations against a permanent member of the Security Council. Up until now these institutions have been put to the test in places like Syria, Iran, and Iraq – not at home in Europe.
This war is as much about Russia reclaiming its power as it is highlighting the structural deficiencies of the Western world order. If Russia persists despite sanctions what does that say about America’s sanctions-first foreign policy strategy? If Article 5 is triggered, will the United States provide the leadership NATO requires to defend its European allies?
As the architect of the post-World War II order America cannot retreat to a historically isolationist policy and defer to European leadership to resolve the situation in Ukraine. The absence of American leadership will undermine the trust we have in the international institutions that run the world as we know it.
Putin knows America may not lead the effort because Putin is the one who dismantled America’s trust in American institutions. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 was part of a larger strategy to weaken the West from within. Now coming off of a retreat from Afghanistan and heading into the next election cycle – where Trump may very well run again – there may not be enough political will for America to lead the international institutions it built.
Again Western attempts to stymie Putin are working in the short-term but for how long can it continue to hold? At the first sign of weakness will America be waiting in the wings to step in? Absent American leadership, what role will these institutions have in the world order moving forward?
Replacing the World Order
The return to empire, challenge to national identities, and test of existing institutions all compromise a larger endeavor – replacing the world order.
We are currently sitting at the precipice of the most significant technological shift of all of human history. Autonomous technology is rapidly advancing. It’s not a matter of if AI will replace human workers, it's a matter of when. This raises an important question: what will the role of humans be when this happens?
Our current economy is based on an exchange of labor for money which is then spent on consumer goods. As technology makes human labor redundant, attention has become the new commodity. This is why tech giants are so valuable and continue to grow. It goes without saying that this transition is increasing the wealth gap, making it more difficult for Americans to work towards the American Dream. This transition undermines the capitalist social contract binding us together. Russia and China both see this as an opportunity to replace the capitalism ideology with a new version of communism 2.0.
Alongside the technological revolution is an environmental one. Our fossil fuel-intensive economy is no longer viable. We have to transition to a low-carbon economy in order to save the planet. Again it is not a matter of if this transition will happen it's a matter of when.
Russia is a net exporter of fossil fuels, supplying 41% of the EU’s natural gas needs. The transition away from fossil fuels is an existential threat to Russia’s economy and the hold it has as a major supplier of fossil fuels to the rest of the world.
There is a lot at stake for the Russian government and wealthy Russian oligarchs when this transition happens. Fossil fuel independence will weaken Russia’s power and thus the position it holds in the world. What then will become of Russia? Certainly, it will not be able to reclaim Russia’s former glory in a low-carbon world.
In our 24/7 clickbait news world, it can be difficult to see Putin’s chess game. What’s important to remember is that all of this has been decades in the making. Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin has crafted a narrative around liberating Russian-speaking populations who are victims to neo-Nazi leaders and their Western allies. And ahead of the 2016 election here in the United States, Russia initiated a stealth information war to begin dismantling trust in the core institutions that would be required to defend Ukraine today.
Putin wants nothing short of Russian hegemony in the world. If this happens the state will control every aspect of society, not just the economic means of production. That is what is at stake here. Freedom and authoritarianism cannot coexist in a Russian-led world order. It isn’t the short-term loss of Ukraine that Putin is after, it’s the long-term collapse of freedom and independence for us all. Putin was allowed to win in 2014 but he cannot be allowed to win this time.